There could be billions more people living on our planet than was previously thought, according to a new study which claims rural population figures worldwide may be significantly underestimated.

United Nations (UN) estimates put the current world population at about 8.2 billion, which is projected to peak at over 10 billion by the mid-2080’s.

But new research, published in the journal Nature Communications, has found that rural populations in current UN estimates could be undercounted by anywhere between 53 and 84 per cent over the data period 1975 to 2010.

The study’s scientists believe the lack of proper reference data has hindered attempts to comprehensively gauge the accuracy of global population datasets, stating: “This is remarkable, as countless studies have employed these datasets without questioning their accuracy in the rural domain”.

They warn that there are “fundamental limitations” with national population censuses, particularly when gauging rural populations.

“Communities in remote locations or impacted by conflict and violence are difficult to access, and census enumerators often face language barriers and resistance to participation,” researchers write.

Citing one example, the study’s scientists say the 2012 census in Paraguay “may have missed a quarter of the population”.

Josias Láng-Ritter, a co-author of the study from Aalto University, said: “For the first time, our study provides evidence that a significant proportion of the rural population may be missing from global population datasets”.

“The results are remarkable, as these datasets have been used in thousands of studies and extensively support decision-making, yet their accuracy has not been systematically evaluated,” Dr Láng-Ritter added.

The researchers assessed the five most widely-used global population datasets that map the planet into evenly spaced, high-resolution grid cells with population counts based on census data. Then they compared these numbers with resettlement data from over 300 rural dam projects across 35 different countries.

Such resettlement data can provide independently gathered comparison points of people’s movement between rural and urban areas, the researchers say. This relocation data is generally accurate, since the dam companies pay compensation to those affected.

The later datasets (2010) had the least bias, according to the study, missing between one-third and three-quarters of the rural population. However, researchers say there is “strong reason” to believe that even the latest data misses part of the global population.

According to Dr Láng-Ritter, “While our study shows accuracy has somewhat improved over decades, the trend is clear: global population datasets miss a significant portion of the rural population.”

The study stops short of estimating a new global population figure, but claims that even in the most accurate dataset, the rural population is “underestimated by half compared to reported figures”.

And even if the most recent population maps are closer to reality, researchers caution that earlier datasets have influenced decision-making for decades and very likely provide a “distorted picture” of the balance between rural and urban living.

While the population undercount appeared to be systemic worldwide, researchers found the discrepancies were particularly noticeable in Brazil, China, Australia, Poland and Colombia.

Scientists are calling for much more strengthened population censuses, alternative population counts, and a more balanced calibration of population models in order to rectify the inaccuracies identified in the study.

Submitted by Friends of Retha


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